Our US Bond strategists expect a modest narrowing of the Treasury/OIS spread, supporting a cyclical long-duration stance and 2s10s steepeners. Over the past year, the spread has added roughly 30 bps to the 10-year Treasury yield,…
Global inflation risks remain subdued, reinforcing a long duration stance across select DM government bonds. Our price pressure index shows moderate input price inflation outside the US and stable delivery times globally.…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
A dovish early Fed nominee would increase volatility in rates and FX as markets reassess the credibility of US monetary policy. News reports indicate the Trump administration is considering nominating a Fed successor ahead of the end…
Headline strength in US capital goods orders is unlikely to last, reinforcing our defensive stance and preference for steepeners. New orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) rose 1.7% m/m in May, beating expectations…
Our Global Fixed Income, FX, and European strategists expect aggressive BoE easing amid disinflation and labor market weakness, supporting an overweight in Gilts and UK equities versus the euro area. While UK productivity remains…
Weakening consumer confidence and fading labor momentum support a long duration stance as inflation fears recede. The June Conference Board Consumer Confidence index dropped 5 points to 93.0, missing expectations. Both present…
Contained Canadian inflation and soft macro conditions support our overweight on Canadian government bonds. May CPI was in line with expectations, with headline inflation holding at 1.7% y/y and core measures slowing to 3.0%, the…
Our US Equity strategists maintain a constructive outlook on equities, supported by easing policy and resilient earnings, but recommend reducing beta to guard against tail risks. Slowing growth and tariff pressures are expected to be…