US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measure remained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fell 0.2% m/m. Our US…
Tuesday morning’s NFIB Small Business Survey release surprised to the upside. The Small Business Optimism Index increased to 93.7 from 91.5, above expectations of remaining flat. The July reading was the highest since…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump’s brand, legacy, and populist movement are based on the popular demand for a more hawkish US policy on trade and immigration. China has been the chief…
Regular readers are familiar with our expectation that the stabilization in global growth this year will be fleeting. The US has been the main source of demand in this cycle. We view the latest string of US employment data as…
Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and whether or not it has been triggered. BCA’s analysis has highlighted that the overall direction of…
The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August, in line with expectations. However, it lifted its trimmed-mean inflation forecast to 3.5% y/y in Q4 2024 and to 2.9% by Q4 2025 (up from 3.4% and 2.8% in its May forecast,…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should fade the rebound in European equities and bond yields as the euro is also at risk. Last week’s bounce in global equities is…
The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?
In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.
The market backdrop changed a lot between the preparation and the publication of our equity downgrade report. We publish this companion Insight to help investors navigate the new environment.