Developed Countries
Housing starts and permits both disappointed in July. New construction contracted 6.8% m/m, from a 1.1% expansion in June. Permits, which typically lead housing starts, declined 4.0% m/m in July from 3.9% growth in the previous month. Concurrently, the NAHB…
The US unemployment rate has clocked in below 4.5% for 33 consecutive months. However, this historically low rate camouflages nascent cracks in the US labor market. Ahead of recessions, firms usually reduce the pace of hiring before they start…
Preliminary estimates suggest that although consumers’ perceptions of current economic conditions unexpectedly deteriorated in August, they are becoming increasingly optimistic about the future. The University of Michigan current conditions gauge dropped…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. They rebounded sharply in July from a previous contraction, largely exceeding expectations. Notably,…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, while the idea that Donald Trump would allow China to build factories in the US does not mesh with the contemporary media narrative, it would fit the historical track record. The last time that the US had…
In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.
Preliminary estimates suggest that US retail sales surprised to the upside in July. They grew by 1.0% m/m from a 0.2% monthly contraction in June, exceeding expectations of a slower 0.4% pace of growth. Sales of vehicles and parts (+3.6% m/m) were the main…
US industrial production fell by a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in July, the largest monthly decline so far this year. Capacity utilization also decreased a full percentage point to 77.8% Although Hurricane Beryl distorted these nationwide July numbers,…
The current Fed easing cycle will likely be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. The basis is our expectation that the US economy is heading into a rough landing. The primary driver of EM currencies is not US interest rates but the global manufacturing cycle.
Consistent with the risk-on environment that has dominated markets so far this year, high yield bonds have returned 4.9% YTD on a total return basis, outperforming both Treasuries (2.9%) and investment grade (3.1%). Nevertheless, our US Bond strategists…