According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, while the market action of the past few weeks is pointing to a return to a negative stock-bond correlation, more prints will be needed to confirm things are…
Mounting evidence that the labor market is on its way to cracking checked two more boxes on our checklist, driving us to tactically downgrade equities to underweight while upgrading fixed income to overweight. Our tactical and…
July nonfarm payrolls expanded by 114 thousand workers, a sharp slowdown from June’s downwardly revised 179 thousand, and significantly disappointing expectations of 175 thousand. The unemployment rate unexpectedly edged…
The ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed in July. The headline index declined at a faster pace, from 48.5 to 46.8, disappointing expectations and extending a four-month contraction streak. Details were uninspiring. New orders…
The Sahm Rule – a widely watched real-time recession indicator – signals the early stages of a recession when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises at least half a percentage point above its past…
A decisive risk-off mood dominated markets at the end of last week, amid disappointing payrolls, tech earnings and manufacturing PMIs. The Nasdaq and other tech-heavy stock markets such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan led the equity…
Sweden’s manufacturing PMI started contracting in July, plummeting from 53 to 49.2, falling far short of expectations that growth would broaden. Weakness was broad-based. Notably, new orders and new export orders plunged…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, there are clear signs that growth is weakening. BCA’s Global Nowcast has been slowing for three months. Behind this slowdown is the fact that the US…
The Bank of England (BoE) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5% at its meeting on Thursday. While the move was expected, the governing board was split, voting 5 – 4 in favor of reducing the key interest rate.…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.