Developed Countries
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
BCA Research has been writing extensively on how consumption fueled by excess savings has been propping up the US economy and prevented a recession in 2023. Now, many estimates of pandemic-era excess savings show that they have run out. While consumption is…
Way back in the 1970s and 1980s, before investment returns were assessed in relation to benchmarks and return of capital had the upper hand over return on capital, BCA researchers were invited to consider the following thought experiment: Imagine you live…
US shelter inflation has been stubbornly high for the past few years, but we finally saw a notable drop in the June CPI release. Given that shelter accounts for more than 40% of the core CPI index, the outlook for shelter inflation is critical for the overall…
The latest iteration of the Fed’s Beige Book, a compilation of qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its twelve Districts, was released Wednesday afternoon. The Beige Book precedes FOMC meetings by two weeks…
In this Insight, we look into the recent CPI release in Canada, and the possible implications for fixed-income market trades.
Markets had already been sussing out that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates for the second time when it meets next week, and this morning’s soft CPI report all but confirmed it. The last remaining obstacle in the way of another BoC rate cut was the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the threat to European equities stems from growth, not French politics. After the dissolution of the French parliament on June 9th, investors sold European assets, anxious that the far left…
On Monday morning, both election betting markets and financial markets reacted to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump that occurred over the weekend. Predictably, the betting odds that Trump will win the presidency in November rose to 67% (from 60% on…
The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?