US durable goods orders grew by 0.1% m/m in May, a tick below April’s pace, and upending preliminary expectations they would decline by 0.5%. Moreover, the contraction in core capital goods shipments (an input into the…
The trade-weighted US dollar ranked among the top performing major asset classes we track in June. It hit a low on June 3rd and has appreciated by 1.5% since then. This is despite no change in short-end rate differentials and an…
BCA Research’s newly launched GeoMacro Strategy service presents the User’s Manual in its inaugural report navigating the differences between Geopolitical alpha and beta. What is the difference between geopolitical…
We explain how to distinguish between ‘good’, ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ unemployment, why bad unemployment is a much better gauge of the jobs market than headline unemployment, and what this means for the tactical positioning in bonds and…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2024.
The number of job openings in the US surprised to the upside in May, growing from a downwardly revised 7.9 million to 8.1 million. Not only did the growth in job openings beat expectations of a decline, but the May number even…
The ISM manufacturing PMI ticked lower in June, from 48.7 to 48.5, thus disappointing expectations of a slower pace of manufacturing sector contraction. The seemingly small decline hides more uninspiring dynamics. Most notably…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, while equity markets can drive US dollar crosses from time to time, bond market inflows matter a lot more. Part of the US exceptionalism story can be…
Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.
