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Developed Countries

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US Election: Don’t Overrate Personalities

The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q2/24: Stay The Defensive Course

In this report, we present the quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. Rebounding growth and political instability led to slightly negative portfolio performance in Q2/2024. As global growth starts to moderate, we continue to favor government bonds over credit. Maintain a defensive portfolio stance.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Implications Of Shrinking Dollar Liquidity

US dollar liquidity has been shrinking, which has important ramifications for global asset prices, including currencies. In this report, we delve into the process of dollar liquidity creation and the outlook for currencies over the next six-to-twelve months.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
The SIFI Banks Kick Off Earnings Season
Second quarter earnings season began for US public companies on Friday as JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported their results before the open. (BAC, the other commercial bank SIFI (systemically important financial institution), reports…
Daily Insights
Will Bond Yields Soar Under A Trump Presidency?
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, investors are overstating the degree to which bond yields will rise under a Trump presidency. For one thing, the team expects the US to fall into recession by the end of 2024 or early 2025. A…
Daily Insights
US Inflation Continues To Decelerate
The disinflationary trend in US CPI continued in June as headline CPI dipped to 3% year-over-year, down from 3.3% in May, and core CPI declined by a tick to 3.3%. On a month-over-month basis, headline prices fell by 0.1% and core prices rose by 0.1%. One…
Daily Insights
What Does The Macro Environment Look Like Ahead Of A Recession?
An investor looking at the low unemployment rate and elevated job vacancy rate could reasonably conclude that the US expansion will continue. However history suggests that recessions often start seemingly out of the blue. Solid growth in the fourth quarter…
Daily Insights
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It's Time To Cut

In light of last week’s employment report and this morning’s CPI, it’s time for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
NFIB Upside Surprise No Cause For Celebration
The NFIB Small Business Optimism (SBO) index climbed from 90.5 to 91.5 in June, the highest print this year, topping consensus expectations of a softening to 90.2. On the surface, this appears to be good news. Indeed, small businesses are particularly…
Daily Insights
US Disinflation Should Continue
US Core CPI inflation has decelerated considerably from its year-over-year peak of 6.6% in September 2022 to 3.4% in May and the consensus expects it remained at 3.4% in June. The year-over-year number has come down continuously, albeit fitfully, over the…
Daily Insights

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