According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent China’s exponential credit growth, China’s trend growth rate will fall to 4 percent and the world’s trend growth rate will fall to sub-3 percent.…
The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today.…
Australia’s inflation for May was released on Tuesday. Annual headline CPI increased from 3.6% in April to 4%, outpacing expectations of 3.8%. Trimmed-mean inflation also increased from 4.1% to 4.4%. Individual…
Our Global Investment Strategy team often highlights the job openings-to-unemployed ratio as a gauge of the labor market’s slack. This indicator climbed to over 2 job openings per unemployed person in 2022, as labor…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025…
According to the results of the latest German IFO survey, overall sentiment deteriorated slightly in June. The IFO Business Climate index declined from 89.3 in May to 88.6 in June, disappointing expectations of a modest…
Canada’s headline inflation rate for May surprised to the upside on Tuesday. The 0.6% month-on-month print and 2.9% year-on-year increase came in above expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, respectively. Both measures…
Historically, there has been a tight inverse relationship between the price of gold and US real rates. Elevated interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, making the yellow metal relatively less attractive for…
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service remains tactically neutral with a defensive cyclical bias. The team is resisting the impulse to turn prematurely defensive ahead of the coming recession. Our colleagues…
Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?