The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish…

Oil prices will rise tactically due to supply risks. Recent developments indicate escalation of the conflict with Iran in the Middle East and confirm our expectation of energy supply disruptions and oil price spikes in the short run…

Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.

Global instability will continue in 2024 – whatever happens afterward. Slowing economies will exacerbate already high geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty stemming from the US election and foreign challenges to US leadership.…

Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.

A series of notable events took place over the Thanksgiving holiday but none of them force us to change our fundamental assessments. The conflict in the Middle East is likely to escalate rather than de-escalate, while the Taiwan…

Special Report

President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.

Special Report

Investors should not get their hopes up about the Biden-Xi summit. Wait to see if a new ruling party is elected in Taiwan before downgrading geopolitical risk in the Taiwan Strait. US-China strategic détente is possible but neither…

Amid a range of geopolitical narratives, what matters is that the US strategy of economic engagement with its rivals is failing, giving rise to a new strategy of containment that will reinforce the secular rise in geopolitical risk.…