The US Personal Income and Outlays report for August sent a positive signal about the disinflationary trend. The core PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – slowed to a 33-month low of 0.1% m/m…
Last week, the Federal Reserve signaled that it expects to deliver one last rate hike this year. Similarly, some of its European counterparts signaled that they are at or close to the end of their hiking cycles. Where does this…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, energy stocks are an appealing overweight as a hedge against oil supply cuts. For now, the earnings of the energy sector continue to lag that of the broad…
US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy colleagues’ once-out-of-consensus call on crude oil prices – i.e., benchmark Brent prices averaging $94/bbl in 2H23 and trading above $100/bbl by December – now is the…
China’s reopening faltered and now it is applying moderate stimulus. OPEC 2.0’s production discipline is getting results, with oil prices climbing. The Fed will not be able to deliver dovish surprises in Q4 2023. Investors should…
Brent crude closed above $90/bbl on Tuesday for the first time since November. The rally comes after key OPEC+ members extended production curbs until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia reported that its 1mm b/d of output cuts…
The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling…
The US and China agreed to hold trade talks more regularly on August 28, even as they fell short of establishing a strategic détente or general reduction of tensions. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited Beijing…
Investors should underweight global equities and risk assets; overweight US stocks relative to global; and overweight defensive sectors versus cyclicals.