The Biden administration reached out to China to try to reduce tensions over the month of May, attracting interest from the investment community, though our Geopolitical Strategists believe the US and China cannot agree to a…
President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and…
The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies…
Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long…
Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.
In this week’s report, we look at the current de-dollarization discussion within the context of the USD’s near-term cyclical outlook, and whether it warrants a bullish or bearish stance.
No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second…
Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…