Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…

Special Report

China is launching a diplomatic charm offensive to improve relations with the world excluding the United States. But China’s proposals in Ukraine and the Middle East are overrated in their ability to restore global stability and…

US financial instability reinforces our bearish investment outlook by weighing on economic growth and corporate earnings while also increasing US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

Special Report

The Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to ramp up its defense spending. This will greatly benefit its defense industry, especially if defense coordination across the EU increases. 

China’s victory in getting KSA and Iran to restore diplomatic relations is of far greater consequence to commodity markets than the past weeks’ bank failures in the US. For China, further success in sorting long-standing security…

Investors in Europe and the American West are already starting to think about the implications of the 2024 election, given that sticky inflation and tighter monetary policy keep the risk of recession elevated.

Special Report

The first legislative meeting of Xi Jinping’s third term suggests that Chinese policy is continuous and consistent with the previous ten years, which is negative for long-term productivity.

Special Report

Investors should avoid / stay underweight Turkish stocks and local currency bonds versus their respective EM benchmarks. Stay underweight Turkish sovereign credit.

Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have…

Two developments this week reinforce our key views for 2023. First, Russia’s threat to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, while escalating the war in Ukraine, confirms that geopolitical risk will rebound and new oil…