Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator  A new equilibrium between NATO, which now includes Sweden and Finland, and Russia needs to be reestablished before geopolitical risks in Europe subside. Russia aims to inflict a…

Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas  Major geopolitical shocks tend to coincide with bear markets, so the market is getting closer to pricing this year’s bad news. But investors are not out of the woods…

Special Report

Executive Summary Autocracy Hurts Productivity  Over the next six-to-18 months, the Xi Jinping administration will “let 100 flowers bloom” – i.e., relax a range of government policies to secure China’…

Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil  The EU imposed an embargo on 90% of Russian oil imports, which will provoke retaliation. Russia will squeeze Europe’s economy ahead of critical negotiations over the coming 6-…

Special Report

Executive Summary Indian Voter’s Economic Miseries Are Ascendant  India has a strong strategic geopolitical position but is likely to face turbulence in the short term. This is because India remains expensive, and investors…

Special Report

Executive Summary Favor ASEAN And The Philippines  Southeast Asia is suffering from fading macro and geopolitical tailwinds but there are still investment opportunities on a relative basis. The peace dividend, globalization…

Special Report

Executive Summary The US Still Dominates Economic Output  While the Ukraine war has been positive for the greenback, there is a slow tectonic shift away from the dollar as China rethinks holding concentrated foreign currency…

Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator  Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…

Special Report

Executive Summary The Declining Value Of An Old Friendship  India may buy cheap oil from Russia, but oil alone cannot expand this partnership. India needs to maintain a balance of power against China and Pakistan. With…

Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-…