Highlights The protectionist option in U.S. policy is here to stay; President Trump is likely to impose punitive measures on China before the U.S. midterm elections; The U.S. Section 301 investigation into China's intellectual…
Highlights The U.S.'s twin deficits do not explain the drop in the USD; Global growth is the biggest factor for the USD, and growth depends on China's economic reforms; The U.S. is turning more hawkish on China trade despite…
Highlights The U.S. government shutdown showed that the path of least resistance is for more fiscal spending; President Trump is turning to trade and foreign policy amid a lack of popularity at home; North Korean diplomacy is on…
Highlights Investors should expect little policy initiative out of the U.S. Congress after tax cuts; Polarization is likely to rise substantively in 2018, gridlocking Congress; Chinese policymakers are experimenting with growth-…
Feature This week we are sending you a shorter-than-usual market update, as we are also publishing a Special Report exploring the outlook for USD cross-currency basis swap spreads. This report argues that USD basis swap spreads should…
Highlights Hurricane Harvey will prove a bigger market-mover than North Korea's latest missile test; The worst flood in Houston's history will improve U.S. policymaking and remove domestic risks; North Korea justifies hedging…
Highlights Investors are becoming less concerned about China's growth outlook, but there is no sign of euphoria. Monitor three risk factors that could disrupt the positive growth outlook and the bull market in Chinese stocks. For…