Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of the greatest cyclical risks to investors. A key question for investors is whether tariffs are…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the impact on global trade from another round of tariffs under a potential Trump administration is an emerging risk to Europe. The underperformance of…
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.
A global economic downturn will be a headwind for natgas prices over the cyclical horizon. Thereafter, LNG capacity additions will help keep the market in balance into the end of the decade. That said, Europe’s increased dependence…
France’s snap election is over and, according to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble paid off in some ways: neither the far right nor the far left can form a…
The Labour Party won the UK election, just as BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service predicted back in 2022. However, this win is unlikely to rock the proverbial geopolitical boat. Popular enthusiasm for Sir Keir…
