Highlights An uptick in COVID-19 infections and squabbling on Capitol Hill are making investors newly uneasy, … : A rising 7-day moving average of new virus infections and falling probability of new fiscal aid weighed heavily on…
The first two panels of the chart above show the 2-week change in smoothed new daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in advanced economies. Mathematically, this measure is the second derivative of total cumulative…
Highlights Bank credit 6-month impulses are plunging, and the pandemic is resurging. Maintain an overweight to growth defensives (technology and healthcare). In the short term, profits will be more resilient in a resurgent pandemic.…
Although the Republican skinny bill failed last week, BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service believes that additional stimulus would ultimately pass. The key constraints are the following: House Democrats face an…
The rolling second wave of infections between the US, Europe and Japan has done little more than to flatten the curve of mobility in recent months. In fact, the August vacations in Europe had a more pronounced effect on driving…
While the number of new cases in the US continues to decline, the second wave of infections in Europe, particularly in France and Spain, is accelerating. Like they did in the US, local authorities are tightening health rules and…
Recommended Allocation Chart 1Only Internet Stocks Have Kept On Rising It has been a very strange bull market. Although global equities are up 52% since their bottom on March 23rd, the rally has been limited largely to…
Highlights ‘Value’ sector profits are in terminal decline. Bank profits are in terminal decline, because private sector credit is now ‘maxed out’, and the intermediation between borrowers and savers can be done…