BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service expects the S&P 500 to trade in a range between 2800 and 3200 points during a period of limbo in which risks over the pandemic response and politics will come to the fore…
BCA Research's Geopolitical Strategy service's analysis shows that economic shocks in recent decades have led to surges in nationalism and the COVID-19 crisis is unlikely to be different. Global and American economic…
Highlights Should the DXY fail to breach below 92 in the coming months, momentum will be a risk to our short dollar positions. Another risk is valuation. The trade-weighted dollar is expensive, but not overly so. It is not especially…
Wednesday’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) update from the IMF was not surprising to most market participants, but it highlighted the sobering reality facing both investors and policymakers over the coming year. The IMF noted…
Highlights The economic performance of Sweden, which did not have a lockdown, has been almost as bad as Denmark, which did have a lockdown. This proves that the current recession is not ‘man-made’, it is ‘pandemic-…
Highlights The cyclical rally in stocks is not over, but the S&P 500 will churn between 2800 and 3200 this summer. Supportive policy, robust household balance sheets and budding economic growth have put a floor under global…
Highlights Policymakers vs. the virus remains the story at the macro level: Fiscal support is the wild card, but we expect Senate hawks, caught between the House and the White House, will roll over in the end. The economy is perking…
Despite the strong rally in stocks since mid-March and a looming second wave of the pandemic, we continue to recommend that investors overweight equities on a 12-month horizon. Needless to say, this view has raised some eyebrows. With…
Highlights We conservatively estimate lost output from shutdowns and social distancing will equal $10 trillion, and we expect the jobs market to be permanently scarred. Inflation, even at 2 percent, is a pipe dream, which leads to…
Highlights The relaxation of lockdown measures, along with mass protests over the past two weeks, have made a second wave of the pandemic more likely than not in many countries. Unlike during the first wave, most governments will not…