Highlights Ever since the Federal Reserve’s liquidity injections, the dollar has been trading in a bifurcated manner. Historically, this has been a rare event. The main bifurcation has been between developed market and commodity…
Highlights Global stimulus efforts are sufficient thus far, but more will need to be done, especially by Europe and emerging markets. Hiccups will not be well-received by financial markets. The net public wealth of countries helps put…
Highlights Our baseline view foresees a U-shaped recovery, as economies slowly relax lockdown measures. There are significant risks to this forecast, however. On the upside, a vaccine or effective treatment could hasten the reopening…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy An easy Fed as far as the eye can see and World War-like fiscal easing packages as the Trump administration prepares to slowly reopen the economy, signal that the path of least resistance remains higher for…
Highlights The air is thick with denunciations of the Fed’s new round of aggressive interventions … : In financial circles, it’s beginning to sound like the winter of 2008-9 all over again, as respected thought…
Feature Global equities have seen an astonishing rally since mid-March, rising by 28%. This leaves them only 13% below their level at the beginning of the year. This is particularly remarkable given the unprecedented decline in economic…
Several countries and US states have already announced some reductions in their pandemic containment restrictions, but the question of how comprehensive these measures can be without risking a second period of prolonged stay-at-home orders…
Highlights The global economy will contract at its fastest pace since the early 1930s, but will not slump into a depression. Easy monetary conditions, an extremely expansive fiscal policy, and solid bank and household balance sheets…