Highlights Portfolio Strategy The Fed’s QE and ZIRP, the collapse in gasoline prices and extremely depressed breadth readings that are contrarily positive, all signal that it no longer pays to be bearish consumer discretionary…
Highlights US Corporates: The Fed continues to expand the reach of its extraordinary monetary policies designed to combat the COVID-19 recession, now giving itself the ability to hold BB-rated US high-yield bonds within its corporate…
Highlights The near-term is fraught with risk for US equities and global risk assets. Investors concerned over uncertainty, a slow recovery, and economic aftershocks must also guard against geopolitics. COVID-19 is not a victory for…
Highlights Global growth should bounce back in the third quarter, as mass COVID-19 testing allows more people to return to work. Temporary layoffs have accounted for the vast majority of the increase in unemployment so far. Ample…
Highlights Europe’s dirty little secret: Euro area debt is already mutualised. Investment implication: Overweight Italian BTPs, underweight German bunds, and overweight the euro on a structural (2-year plus) horizon. ESM plus…
Highlights Please note that we are publishing an analysis on Vietnam below. The unprecedented depth of this recession entails that many businesses will likely be operating below their break-evens for a while, even after the…
Dear Client, Next week, we will send you a special report published by our Geopolitical Strategy service, authored by my colleague Roukaya Ibrahim. Roukaya will provide her insights on the global shortages of medical equipment as well as…
Our former colleague, Marko Papic of the Clocktower Group, highlighted to us the decline in new COVID-19 cases in New York City. The chart above shows that not only are new cases falling precipitously in the Big Apple but so…
The number of newly reported cases of COVID-19 in Italy and Spain seems to have peaked 13 days ago. This by no means indicates that an end of the lockdowns is imminent, but if China’s experience is any guide, it suggests…