Highlights The pandemic has a negative impact on households and has not peaked in the US. But a depression is likely to be averted. Our market-based geopolitical risk indicators point toward a period of rising political turbulence…

Special Report

Highlights In contrast to the low-inflation experience of the euro area and other developed market countries over the past several years, the structural backdrop has and will continue to favor inflation in central European (CE)…

Special Report

Highlights Global investors have come to accept the secular stagnation narrative as described by Larry Summers in November 2013, and have gravitated to the only available real time estimate of the real neutral rate of interest: the…

Highlights The global economy is in the midst of a painful recession. Monetary and fiscal authorities are responding forcefully to the crisis, but the lengths of the lockouts and quarantines remain a major source of downside risk…

  Highlights Market Turmoil: The combination of accelerating global cases of COVID-19, a surging US dollar and elevated market volatility has wreaked havoc on financial markets. A sustainable bottom in global risk assets (and,…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy We have identified 20 reasons to start buying equities. We highlight positive catalysts that should underpin the equity market as the pandemic progresses. Investors with higher risk tolerance should…

Highlights Financial markets are in a state of upheaval, and no one knows where or when they’ll bottom: We reiterate that it’s too early to dive back into equities or spread product. The policy path is not nearly as clear…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week, I provided an update through a webcast on the economic and financial market outlook in the era of the COVID-19 outbreak. You can access the webcast here. In lieu of our regular report this week, we are sending…

Special Report

Highlights The global pandemic is quickening the decline in globalization. Democracies can manage the virus, but it will be painful. European integration just got a major boost from Germany’s fiscal turn. Stay long the German…

Dear clients, In addition to this short weekly report, you will also receive a Special Report penned by my colleague Jonathan LaBerge on Sweden, with implications for the SEK. I hope you will find the report both useful and insightful.…