We recommend investors closely follow the number of new COVID-19 cases in Italy. At 4,207, as of March 18th, this number remains lower than it was on March 13th. However, new cases have nonetheless trended up over that past…
Highlights Policy Responses: The COVID-19 pandemic has become a full-blown global crisis and recession. Governments and central bankers worldwide are now responding with aggressive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. Markets will not…
The coronavirus has served as a catalyst for a bear market in the SPX, the first since the GFC. We have been bearish up until this past Monday but given that we do not expect a GFC repeat we recommended investors with higher…
In his recent television address, French President Emmanuel Macron referred to the current situation as a war. History is clear; nothing busts government budgets like wars. In fact, for most of the modern era, inflation was…
Highlights Duration: We are not prepared to say that bond yields have troughed, even with the fed funds rate now back to the zero bound. Investors should keep portfolio duration close to benchmark. We do not rule out longer-maturity…
HighlightsPortfolio Strategy“There is blood in the streets”. Investors with higher risk tolerance should be buying into this weakness and start to deploy long-term oriented capital. S&P 500 futures fell to 2394 which is a whopping 1000…
Highlights The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and a recession appears to be inevitable, … : The longest bull market in S&P 500 history succumbed last week to the Saudi-Russia oil war, the relentless drumbeat of spreading…
Feature “People have been asking me whether this is the time to buy. My answer is more nuanced: it’s probably a time to buy.” Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital, Monthly Memo March 2020 Markets have moved…
Highlights China is moving from virus containment to normalization and economic stimulus. The full weight of the virus panic is only now hitting the US public and has not yet peaked. The US – and western democracies in general…