Dear Client, In addition to this week’s report, BCA Research will hold webcasts over the coming days to discuss the economic and financial outlook amid the myriad of uncertainties gripping global markets. I will take part in a…
Highlights China should fare a global recession better than most G20 economies, given its large domestic market and powerful policy response. China is likely to frontload a large portion of its multi-year infrastructure…
Dear Clients, This week we are issuing two Special Alerts on the Russo-Saudi market share war, one of which you have already received. Our weekly publication will proceed as usual on Friday, March 13. In this Special Alert, we update…
Highlights Uncertainty & Yields: Global bond yields, driven to all-time lows as investors seek safety amid rioting markets, now discount a multi-year period of very weak global growth and inflation. Bond Portfolio Strategy:…
Highlights Duration: It is too soon to call the bottom in bond yields. To help make that call we will be looking for when: daily new COVID-19 infections reach zero, global growth indicators improve, US economic indicators worsen,…
The market already anticipates the Fed to cut the fed funds rate below 0.25% by April, thus the Fed can do little to jolt markets higher. A large-scale fiscal spending package is the only policy measure that could put a permanent…
Highlights The latest interest rate cuts by central banks confirms the narrative that the authorities view economic risks as asymmetrical to the downside. This all but assures that competitive devaluation will become the dominant…
Dear Client, We are publishing an abbreviated report this week. Last night, I sent you a special report written by Matt Gertken, BCA’s chief geopolitical strategist, containing his analysis of the US presidential race following…
Highlights Financial markets are now fully priced for an economic downturn lasting one quarter… …but they are not fully priced for a recession. To go tactically long equities versus bonds requires a high conviction that…
Highlights At the current rate of work resumption, March’s PMI should rebound to its “normal range” from February’s historic lows. If so, our simple calculation, using China’s PMI figures and GDP growth in…