Highlights Policy Responses To The Virus: Markets are now pricing in significant monetary policy easing in response to the growth shock from the COVID-19 outbreak and related financial market instability. It is not yet clear, however,…
Feature “Bayesian: …statistical methods that assign probabilities or distributions to events…based on experience or best guesses before experimentation and data collection and that apply Bayes' theorem to revise…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy It is still early to bottom fish, and trying to catch the proverbial falling knife does not interest us for cyclically oriented capital. Uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus epidemic and its effects on…
Highlights We spent last week meeting with clients in South Africa, who maintained their equanimity despite the spread of the coronavirus: Maybe it was because there were not yet any reported cases close to home, but investors…
Highlights It is too soon to bottom feed with fears of a global pandemic and “socialist” boom in the United States. China’s government will do “whatever it takes” to stimulate the economy – but…
Highlights Supply constraints and unstoppable demand growth – the result of stricter regulations requiring higher loadings in autocatalysts to treat toxic pollution in automobile-engine emissions – will continue to push…
Dear Client, I participated in a webinar earlier this week with my fellow BCA Research strategists to discuss the coronavirus outbreak and other timely issues. A replay can be accessed from this link. In lieu of our regular report next…
Highlights Global growth will quickly recover if the Covid-19 outbreak is soon controlled. If the virus's spread doesn't slow, a worldwide recession will take hold in 2020. BCA remains cyclically bullish, but tactical caution…
Highlights In the past week, it is becoming evident that the Chinese leadership is willing to abandon its financial de-risking agenda in exchange for a rapid economic recovery. Monetary conditions are already more accommodative than…
Highlights Dear Client, This week, we had originally planned to publish a Special Report introducing a framework for modeling and selecting global yield curve trades. In light of the market turbulence of the past few days, however, we…