Disasters/Disease

There is a risk that global bond yields move higher in the near term, although we prefer to position for that move <i>via</i> cross-market spread, yield curve and inflation trades.

A combination of physical rebalancing in the oil markets and geopolitical risk have pushed oil prices above $50/bbl. We therefore close our recommendation - made jointly with BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy team - to long a December 2016 WTI $50/$55 call spread for a 106.3% gain.