Domestic Politics
US assets should benefit in the short run as investors recognize that US checks and balances still operate – and so does the election cycle.
The US and China appear to be moving toward a trade deal, though it remains unclear whether the goal is simply damage control or a genuine expansion of market access. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on October 30 in South Korea, with both sides…
Japan's first woman prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, will underperform on economic stimulus but outperform on defense spending and strategic diplomacy. Stay long Japanese yen.
The shutdown can continue into November; only when the off-year elections and/or national opinion polls put more pressure on one or both parties will compromise start to come together to reopen the government. The US federal government shutdown continued for…
Japanese markets reacted sharply to Sanae Takaichi’s election as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the frontrunner to become Japan’s next Prime Minister. The Nikkei surged 4.8% and the yen plunged nearly 2% across major pairs. Seen as a…
French markets woke up Monday to fresh political turmoil, with Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigning just 27 days into office, marking the shortest tenure in modern French history. The CAC 40 dropped over 2%, the euro slid 0.7% against the dollar, and…
Our US and Geopolitical strategists see 50% odds of a shutdown that lasts beyond three weeks. Investors continue to wonder whether the US federal government shutdown will last long enough, or involve large enough layoffs, to affect the underlying…
The October 1 partial US government shutdown risks denting near-term GDP and sentiment but should present a buying opportunity if it triggers equity weakness. The US federal government partly shutdown on October 1 after the Republican-held Senate failed to…
President Trump said a partial federal government shutdown is "probably likely" late in the afternoon on September 30. Senators have until midnight to pass a continuing resolution already passed by the House that would keep the government operating until…
Will the US federal government shutdown on October 1? Congressional leaders are meeting with President Trump in the White House as we go to press. If eight Democratic senators do not vote with Republicans to pass a no-frills "continuing resolution" by…