The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and…
Chinese social unrest will be suppressed first, then the government will relax policies to stabilize the economy. We are reducing our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $85/bbl as a result of the short-term negative news, but maintaining our $…
Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.
The midterm election will bring some relief from US policy uncertainty. But this relief will be short-lived unless Republicans win the Senate, which is still too close to call. Global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will…
Stay defensive at least until the US midterm election is over. Gridlock is disinflationary in 2023 and hence marginally positive for US equities. But any relief rally will be short-lived as recession risks are very high.
Russia’s conflict with the West will escalate and trigger more bad news for risky assets this fall. Beyond that, stalemate looms. Latin American equities present a potential opportunity once the macro and geopolitical backdrop…