Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service fiscal drag is probably overstated as governments are likely to increase deficit spending on the margin. US Congress is likely to pass Biden’s $550 billion bipartisan…
Japanese stocks have recently been one of the best performing global equity markets. MSCI Japan gained 2% in September, while the US and All Country World Indices each fell more than 4%. The outperformance reflects domestic…
On Monday, Senate Republicans blocked a bill that would have extended federal funding to early December, provided emergency relief, and suspended the debt ceiling until December 2022. Democrats are now facing a tight deadline.…
It is not yet a done deal, but the shift within the party in favor of accepting a “no deal” exit is clear. None of the remaining candidates is willing to forgo that option. The newest development advances us along…
Highlights China-U.S. trade détente goes against our alarmist forecast, prompting us to reassess the view; We do not expect the truce to last long, as China has not given the U.S. what we believe the Trump administration wants…
Highlights Our constraints-based methodology does not rely on human intelligence or the "rumor mill" to analyze political risks; Yet insights from our travels across the U.S., including inside the Beltway, offer interesting…
Highlights Midterm election is yet another geopolitical headwind to the markets this summer; A "lame duck" Trump could seek relevance abroad, with aggressive foreign and trade policy; Investors would be right to fret about…
Highlights After the March FOMC Meeting, market pricing for short-term rates is largely consistent with the Fed's forecasts. For investors and the Fed, the health of the economy and earnings matter more than Trump's political…