Special Report

Dear Clients, This week we are re-publishing an excellent Special Report written by our geopolitical team that appeared in the January 2018 Bank Credit Analyst. The recent removal of term limits on the Chinese presidency, a move that…

Highlights The political path of least resistance leads to fiscal profligacy - in the U.S. and beyond. The response to populism is underway. The U.S. midterm election is market-relevant. Gridlock between the White House and Congress…

Special Report

Highlights Japan's reflationary economic policies will be reinforced ahead of the constitutional referendum; The Bank of Japan is a long way from a 2% inflation overshoot; Fiscal thrust will continue to surprise to the upside;…

Highlights The U.S.'s twin deficits do not explain the drop in the USD; Global growth is the biggest factor for the USD, and growth depends on China's economic reforms; The U.S. is turning more hawkish on China trade despite…

Highlights The U.S. government shutdown showed that the path of least resistance is for more fiscal spending; President Trump is turning to trade and foreign policy amid a lack of popularity at home; North Korean diplomacy is on…

Highlights The "Pocketbook Voter Theory" says that voters will reward politicians who deliver economic success; Nevertheless, congressional Republicans face significant headwinds in the mid-term elections in November; The…

Special Report

2018 is a pivotal year for China, as it will set the trajectory for President Xi Jinping's second term ... and he may not step down in 2022. Poverty, inequality, and middle-class angst are structural and persistent threats to China…

Special Report

2018 is a pivotal year for China, as it will set the trajectory for President Xi Jinping's second term ... and he may not step down in 2022. Poverty, inequality, and middle-class angst are structural and persistent threats to China…

Highlights Global bourses celebrated solid earnings growth and the passage of U.S. tax cuts heading into year-end. The direct effect of the tax cuts will likely boost U.S. real GDP growth in 2018 by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points. It…

Highlights Investors should expect little policy initiative out of the U.S. Congress after tax cuts; Polarization is likely to rise substantively in 2018, gridlocking Congress; Chinese policymakers are experimenting with growth-…