Domestic Politics
Trump may be slightly favored for the White House but the US election is still extremely close. Odds of a contested or contingent election are rising, which should cause stock market volatility. A Republican sweep should cause more volatility. Democratic gridlock is next most likely but benign for stocks in the short run.
The month of October ahead of a US general election tends to be a volatile month with negative outcome for equities. As such, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines until after the election.
The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more risk. While we predicted the October surprise from the Middle East, more surprises are coming before the final vote is cast.
Western policymakers are pursuing three capital “T” Truths: China is evil, climate change is a major risk, and Russia is… also evil. Pursuing all three priorities at the same time presents a version of the classic “impossible trinity.”
Our quant model shows Democrats winning the election at a 56% probability, with 303 electoral college votes. But swing state economies are slowing and Democrats’ odds in Michigan fell. Trump can win with Georgia, Michigan, plus one other state. Neither the Fed nor China’s stimulus should reduce one’s odds of a Republican upset.
Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.
As we head into a more turbulent macroeconomic and geopolitical period, investors should favor countries with newly elected government, small government size, and ample room to cut policy rate. Ideally, they should also be in a stable region, and not so dependent on the US or China. Hence, we are introducing the Global Political Capital Index as a way to integrate these factors into a score that can help narrow down the countries with the best and worst abilities to deal with the incoming challenges.