Economic Growth
Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey paints a weak macro picture with limited price pressures, supporting an overweight on CGBs and CAD 5s10s steepeners. The BOS Indicator ticked up marginally to -2.3 from -2.4, as low capacity utilization and business…
We expect the divergence between resilient growth and weakening employment to be resolved by lower growth estimates, supporting long duration and steepeners. Economic activity and employment usually move together in a circular relationship: spending drives…
Recent Canadian data confirm slowing growth, reinforcing support for government bonds and steepeners. The October CFIB Business Barometer fell to 46.3 from 50.2, indicating contraction and underscoring the risk posed by small business weakness given their…
The October Fed Beige Book points to slowing growth as uncertainty continues to weigh on activity. Fed contacts reported consumer spending recently decreased, though auto sales were supported by EV purchases ahead of the expiration of tax credits. Lower- and…
The October Empire Manufacturing survey beat estimates, but weak investment and hiring intentions temper its positive signal. The index rose to 10.7 from -8.7, indicating modest activity growth. New orders ticked up, and shipments increased after plunging…
The October ZEW survey sent a mixed signal on near-term European growth, confirming limited growth momentum. Euro area growth expectations fell to 22.7 from 26.1, while German expectations missed estimates but rose slightly to 39.3 from 37.3. Current…
The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, falling to 98.8 from 100.8. The decrease was driven by expectations, as fewer small businesses expect the economy to improve or real sales to rise. Firms also reported inventories as too high,…
Japan’s September machine tool orders rose 9.9% year-on-year to a six-month high, led by a 13% jump in foreign exports, reinforcing the growing tailwind for Japan’s industrial sector and supporting a structural overweight yen position. Foreign demand remains…
The September ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations at 49.1, but details confirm weak momentum and tariff-driven pressures. The headline improved from 48.7 in August, its second consecutive monthly gain, but the uptick came mainly from longer supplier…
The RBA held rates at 3.6% as expected, maintaining caution as inflation could prove stronger than expected. Policy remains slightly restrictive, and at most one additional cut is on the table as the central bank has achieved a soft landing. While the RBA has…