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Economic Growth

US GDP: Keep An Eye On Consumption
Advanced Q4 US GDP missed estimates, slowing down to 2.3% quarterly annualized growth from 3.1%. The weakness was however driven by inventories. Consumer spending beat estimates and accelerated to 4.2% from 3.7% in Q3. Growth is still above trend as the US…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ECB Cuts On Its Way To Neutral
The ECB cut by 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%. Despite avoiding committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track”, and did not push against current market pricing,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Canadian Stocks: Walking The Tightrope

Jonathan provides an update on Canada following strong performance from Canadian stocks last year. On a tactical basis, underweight Canada versus global ex-US on the expectation of tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico. Following a sell off, or if a trade war is avoided, investors should place Canadian stocks on upgrade watch with the goal of moving to a modest overweight versus global ex-US.

The Bank Credit Analyst by Jonathan LaBerge
Global Headwinds Still Weighing On European Growth
The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component missed estimates and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Early Thoughts On An Early Tech Selloff
News of a cheaper Chinese-developed AI model sent a tremor through markets, with a selloff in the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and leading tech names associated with AI. The narrative on Monday was that the eye-watering sums spent on AI capex by mega-cap tech…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Lacking Conviction

Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Flash PMIs Surprise, But Still Point To Low Global Growth
January’s flash PMIs for the major developed markets showed that manufacturing contracted at a slower pace and service activity continues to display significant regional differences. Moreover, the performance gap between the US and its DM peers…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Still On The Tightrope

While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Canada: Cool CPI, Heated Tariffs Rhetoric
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
UK: Cooling Employment Will Contain Inflation
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics