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Economic Growth

Staying The Course On Our Bearish Views
Recent economic data surprises drove equities and bond yields higher, putting our US Investment Strategy team’s bearish views to the test. They recently published a piece assessing their views considering these bullish developments. First, there is more to…
Daily Insights
A Disappointing First Read On US Manufacturing
After improving throughout the summer, the October release of the first monthly regional Fed manufacturing survey sent a negative signal about US manufacturing activity. General business conditions from the Empire State Manufacturing survey fell 23 points…
Daily Insights
Canadian Inflation Supports Dovish BoC
Canadian headline inflation rose 1.6% year-over-year in September, lower than the expected 1.8% and down from 2.0% in August. This was also its slowest pace since February 2021. The decrease was mainly driven by gasoline prices, leaving the core (ex. food and…
Daily Insights
Fade European Sentiment Uptick
Economic expectations for the both Germany and the Eurozone ticked up in October and surprised positively for the first time since they collapsed this summer. The assessment of current conditions however worsened, going from -84.5 to -86.9. The expectations…
Daily Insights
UK Assets: Mark Your Calendar
The UK August employment report was in line with recent data showing an economy humming at a decent pace. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1pp to 4% after peaking at 4.4% before the summer. The BoE will look kindly to the continued deceleration in wage…
Daily Insights
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Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Staying The Course

Rising stock prices and improving economic data have us re-examining our bearish thesis, but we still see deterioration in leading labor market indicators and expect it will eventually culminate in a recession. We reiterate our defensive investment recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Will The UK Budget Be A Tsunami For The Pound And Gilts?

In this Insight, we assess whether investors should expect fiscal turbulence in the UK, that will drive UK yields higher and the pound lower.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Has The US Labor Market Turned The Corner?

It is too early to say that the US labor market has turned the corner. We assign a 60% chance that the US will enter a recession over the next 12 months, with the downturn likely to begin in the first half of 2025. Accordingly, investors should underweight equities.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Aggregate Data Hint At Accelerating Activity
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – increased to 0.12 from -0.42, suggesting that the US economy improved in August. Details, however, do not point to a broad-based acceleration since…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics