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Economic Growth

Investors Sour On The Eurozone
After briefly breaking a 27-month streak of negative sentiment back in June, the Eurozone Sentix Economic index disappointed in August. The overall index worsened from July’s negative reading to -13.9, below expectations of a milder deterioration. The…
Daily Insights
Consumers Grow Pessimistic About Main Street But Not Wall Street
The latest Conference Board measure of consumer confidence suggested that consumers were increasingly downbeat about current economic conditions. Notably, their fading optimism about labor market conditions drove the jobs-plentiful-minus-hard-to-get measure…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Slowdown Story Remains Intact

The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
The Euro Area Economy Is Vulnerable
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a foreign shock is likely to tip the Eurozone economy into a recession because important vulnerabilities have emerged domestically. Policy is restrictive. Real interest rates stand 370bps…
Daily Insights
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Will The ECB Save The Day?

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Tea Leaves From Bond And FX Market Indicators

This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Mid-Cap Banks Dodge Another CRE Bullet
Equity investors have been skittish about mid-cap banks ever since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023. The S&P MidCap 400 Regional Banks Index remains 4% below its February 2023 high while the S&P 500 Diversified Banks Index, dominated by the…
Daily Insights
Trade Policy Under A Second Trump Presidency
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of the greatest cyclical risks to investors. A key question for investors is whether tariffs are prioritized early in the administration or…
Daily Insights
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Venezuela: The Year Of The Bolivar!

Oil markets will not be impacted by Venezuela in the near term, but by shocks from the Middle East. Maduro’s ability to stay in power in the short-term removes an avenue of oil supply relief. The same avenue is cut off if Trump is reelected. Geopolitical shocks in Venezuela could present tactical buying opportunities for Chile, Peru, and Colombia.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk
The BoC Dove Soars
The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate by 25bps for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. We highlighted in a recent Insight that the soft June inflation print and weakening labor market increased the odds of more aggressive BoC easing. …
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics