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Economic Growth

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A Tug Of War

Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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What Is Sweden Telling Us About The Global Cycle?

In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Melanie Kermadjian, Chester Ntonifor
Are Taiwanese Export Orders Sending A Warning?
The 10.4% contraction in Taiwanese export orders for February delivered a negative surprise to expectations that the pace of expansion would slow from 1.9% y/y to 1.2% y/y. However, investors should not read too deeply into this weaker-than-anticipated…
Daily Insights
Chinese Housing Market: A Fourth Year Of Contraction?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the adjustment in China’s real estate sector is not over. Odds are that the property market will contract for the fourth year in a row. The property market indicators continue to paint a grim…
Daily Insights
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Turkey: Macro-Orthodoxy Redux?

Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it did in the 1990s.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
US Homebuilder Sentiment Continues To Recover
Indicators continue to point to resilient US housing market dynamics. The NAHB Housing Market Index increased for the fourth consecutive month to an 8-month high of 51 in March, beating expectations it would remain unchanged at 48. Increases across all three…
Daily Insights
Structural Trends in Emerging Markets Debt: Global Savings Glut
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the impact of the global savings glut is among the four structural trends that will drive EM debt going forward. As an asset traditionally further out on the risk curve, EMD is sensitive to…
Daily Insights
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Getting There

Improved consumer morale will not compensate for the fading tailwinds to consumption. Neither will the wealth effects from higher stocks and home prices.

US Investment Strategy by Jennifer Lacombe
Beige Book Indicates Consumer Pushback On Price Increases
Our US Beige Book monitor – which we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s report – continues to signal lackluster US economic conditions. Historically, the monitor has closely tracked real GDP growth in the US. However, the long standing…
Daily Insights
A Material Rally?
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, dynamics have shifted beneath the surface of the S&P 500. The Materials sector has been rallying sharply since the end of January, gaining 9.9% over this period and taking the top spot among the 11 sectors. This…
Daily Insights

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