Economic Growth
US housing data remain weak, reinforcing a fragile growth backdrop and the need for equity downside protection. July housing starts rose 5.2% m/m (annualized), but building permits fell 2.8% following a small June decline. The August NAHB Housing Market…
UK data momentum is fading, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. At 5.60%, 30-year Gilts trade at their highest yields since the late 1990s, reflecting persistent pressure on the long end across DMs. The Bank of England has lagged the ECB in its…
The surprisingly positive August Empire State Manufacturing survey conceals growth headwinds. The headline index rose to 11.9 in August from 5.5 in July, well above estimates. But the report showed a split between current conditions, which drive the…
A smooth S&P 500 rally has crushed volatility, but stretched signals argue for buying protection. The index has climbed back to all-time highs with almost no drawdown, producing a steady decline in realized volatility. This has pushed implied…
Retail sales and consumer sentiment data point to slowing underlying momentum despite headline resilience. Retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in July, below estimates and decelerating from 0.9% in June. The control group beat estimates at 0.5% but also slowed.…
July data confirm China’s weak growth, with no near-term shift toward meaningful stimulus. New home prices fell 0.31% m/m, retail sales slowed to 3.7% y/y from 4.8%, and industrial production eased. Flooding in July disrupted infrastructure spending…
The Indian rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation amid slowing growth, tight domestic policy, and fragile capital flows. Trade risks and a weakening external balance will likely keep INR underperforming EM Asia peers.
European sentiment has moderated, pointing to near-term downside risk for a technically-stretched Euro. The August Eurozone ZEW Expectations index fell to 25.1 from 36.1, with Germany’s reading missing estimates, dropping sharply to 34.7 from 52.7. The German…
US equities are set for tactical outperformance versus Europe, but dips or underperformance in European assets remain entry points for long-term investors. European stocks have stalled below prior highs, while the S&P 500 has rebounded to record levels…
The RBA delivered a widely expected cut to 3.6%, but resilient data warrant an ACGBs underweight. The 25 bps cut was the third this year and Governor Bullock’s guidance was consistent with a cut every other meeting, keeping ACGB yields roughly…