Economic Growth
As expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range on Friday. Although the statement continued to indicate that the Fed is prepared to tighten further, it also acknowledged that there has been a slowdown in economic growth and that…
Weaker-than-anticipated economic data caused a sharp decline in UK gilt yields over the past few days with the 10 year yield now at its lowest since May. The weakness in economic data was broad-based across various sectors of the UK economy. In the…
China’s credit expanded by less than expected in November. The CNY 2.45 trillion increase in aggregate financing fell short of anticipations of CNY 2.595 trillion following a CNY 1.845 trillion rise in October. Similarly, the CNY 1.09 trillion in new yuan…
The continued improvement in German investor morale captured by the ZEW survey corroborates other indicators pointing to near-term support for Eurozone stocks. Economic sentiment jumped three points to a 9-month high of 12.8 in December, surprising…
Australian materials stocks have been outperforming the country’s broad index since mid-August, undoing the sector’s relative losses of the prior months, and bringing the year-to-date gain to 7.7% in absolute terms – above the broad index’s 3.5% increase.…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European equities near cycle highs are vulnerable to weaker earnings. The team’s earnings model for Eurozone equities continues to point to a double-digit profit contraction over the next…
China’s CPI and PPI releases delivered a negative signal about the domestic economy. The rate of contraction in the CPI index accelerated to -0.5% y/y in November, the sharpest rate of decline in 3 years and disappointing expectations it would remain at -0.2%…
Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.
The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local governments, enterprises, and consumers. …
The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was corroborated by the unemployment…