Economic Growth
AI capex has emerged as the dominant driver of US growth in 2025, reshaping both macro dynamics and equity strategy. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Juan Correa, Chief Strategist for Global Asset Allocation.Over the first half of the year, AI-related…
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) held rates at 15%, guaranteeing a sharp growth slowdown and reinforcing our underweight stance on Brazilian equities versus EM. All Copom board members voted to maintain an ultra-hawkish policy due to unanchored inflation…
June US income and spending shows softening demand and rising goods inflation pressure, reinforcing our long-duration stance. Real personal spending only rose 0.1% m/m, in line with expectations. Personal income increased 0.3% m/m, but real income…
The Fed held rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, with a divided FOMC and resilient growth keeping policy on hold, supporting our long-duration stance. The target range remains at 4.25%–4.50%, with the statement reflecting only a modest downgrade to the…
Q2 US GDP beat expectations at 3.0% annualized, but the underlying data confirm that growth momentum is fading, reinforcing our defensive stance. Consumption rebounded, but disappointed at 1.4%. The quarter was heavily distorted by trade dynamics: firms…
June core capital goods orders missed, confirming subdued capex momentum and reinforcing our defensive stance and long duration bias. Orders fell 0.7% m/m, below expectations, while shipments rose 0.4%. Headline durable goods dropped 9.3%, reversing…
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but slowed in the UK. Manufacturing…
The post-Liberation Day dichotomy between improving soft data and worsening hard data points to an uneven recovery, keeping us positioned for downside risk. Soft data cratered post-Liberation Day as policy uncertainty and market volatility surged, with…
RBA minutes confirmed a cautious approach to easing, reinforcing our underweight in ACGBs and long AUD/NZD stance. The decision to hold at 3.85% surprised markets expecting a 25 bps cut. Governor Bullock had framed the decision as one of timing, but…
The Q2 Business Outlook Survey showed weaker sentiment and subdued hiring and investment intentions, reinforcing the case for deeper BoC rate cuts and our overweight in Canadian bonds. The BOS indicator ticked down to -2.4 from -2.1 in Q1, with net future…