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Economic Growth

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2024: The Year Of The Yen

There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.

Global Investment Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Beige Book: Stable Or Slightly Weaker Growth Outlook
Stronger-than-anticipated retail sales and nonfarm payroll employment in September indicate that conditions are still favorable for US consumers. Similarly, the latest reading from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model stands at 5.4% for Q3 – well above estimates of…
Daily Insights
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Does The Bear-Steepener Have Legs?

The recent bear-steepening of the US Treasury curve has been driven by the combination of stronger-than-expected economic growth and stable Fed rate expectations. Historically, such periods do not last very long, and we see the current bear-steepening episode ending soon. We also highlight an opportunity in Agency MBS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Resilient US Retail Sales Growth In September
The US retail sales report delivered a sanguine update on US consumption. Overall spending increased by 0.7% m/m in September – above expectations of a 0.3% m/m rise and following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m in August. The details of the report were also…
Daily Insights
Singapore NODX: The Contraction Eases
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global and Asian economic activity. This characteristic makes its exports a good bellwether for global growth. On this front, the upside surprise in Singapore's non-oil domestic…
Daily Insights
ZEW: Better Days Ahead?
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an optimistic signal on Tuesday. German sentiment rebounded sharply from -11.4 to -1.1 in October – its highest level since April. Lower inflation expectations and a sharp increase in the share of respondents…
Daily Insights
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Greeting Q3-2023 Earnings Season

Q3-2023 is expected to mark the end of the earnings recession for the past three quarters, opening the door to positive earnings growth. Whether that would be sustainable or will sputter once the recession settles in as expected in 2024 remains to be seen. However, much of earnings growth is already priced in.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
Restrictive Financial Conditions: A Drag On Growth
US financial conditions have tightened meaningfully in Q3. While the Goldman Sachs index remains below where it was a year ago, it crossed above the 100 line in late September into restrictive levels after spending most of the year in accommodative territory.…
Daily Insights
BoC: Too Early To Declare Mission Accomplished?
Results of the Banks of Canada’s Q3 business and consumer surveys reveal that the aggressive tightening cycle is dampening economic agents’ sentiment. Putting aside the sharp decline at the onset of the pandemic in Q2 2020, the Business Outlook Survey (BOS)…
Daily Insights
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The Math Behind Trump’s Nomination

More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma

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