Economic Growth
As expected, the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged on Friday. The policy rate remains at -0.1% and the central bank maintains Yield Curve Control (YCC) on 10-year JGB yields. To the extent that the BoJ made an important tweak to its…
Investor sentiment has turned less optimistic. According to the latest AAII survey, the share of respondents with a bullish outlook has collapsed to 31.3% from its peak of 51.4% two months ago. It is now back down below its historical average of 37.5%.…
Thursday’s release of US weekly jobless claims and continuing claims delivered a positive surprise about labor market conditions. The decline in initial jobless claims to an eight-month low of 201 thousand came in below expectations of an increase from 221…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the 2006/07 roadmap remains a good one for bond investors. The Fed held the funds rate steady this afternoon and made no material changes to its policy statement. That said, meeting participants did…
Taiwanese export orders sent a disappointing signal about global manufacturing conditions on Wednesday, corroborating the message from Singapore’s NODX release earlier this week. The pace of decline in export orders accelerated to -15.7% y/y in August --…
China’s reopening faltered and now it is applying moderate stimulus. OPEC 2.0’s production discipline is getting results, with oil prices climbing. The Fed will not be able to deliver dovish surprises in Q4 2023. Investors should expect stock market and commodity volatility and prefer defensive positioning.
The German auto and components sector is under stress. Year-to-date, the sector’s equity prices have declined by 3.5% relative to the broader German market, and multiple indicators suggest that further challenges lie ahead. One significant concern is the…
Over the past few months a schism has emerged in the industrial metals complex. On the one hand, the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index – which is composed of futures contracts on copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and lead – has been gyrating in a trading range…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service European inflation is likely to remain stubborn through the remainder of the decade, since the working-age population’s decline will keep the labor market tight. European rates have…
Monetary policy is difficult to calibrate: it is hard to get it just right. The Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service has been iterating that while the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, there is much uncertainty surrounding the idea that the…