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Economic Growth

Weaker-Than-Expected Japanese Economic Data
Japanese economic data delivered a negative surprise on Friday. Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 1.5% q/q to 1.2% q/q, below expectations of 1.4% q/q. The downwards revision reflects a 1% q/q decline in business spending (down from the preliminary…
Daily Insights
The Most Important Charts For The Next Dollar Move

In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Carbon Credits: Short In The Short Run, Long In The Long Run
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the structural bull case for carbon credits remains compelling. However, tactical investors should brace for prices to plateau or even correct over the next 12-to-24 months. The long-term…
Daily Insights
Global Growth: Failing Engines

If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as global growth downshifts. These dynamics herald a stronger US dollar and lower EM risk asset prices.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US ISM Services PMI Unexpectedly Rises
The US ISM delivered a positive signal about service sector activity in August. The headline index unexpectedly jumped by 1.8 points to a six-month high of 54.5, surprising expectations of a 0.2-point decline to 52.5. Importantly, the details of the report…
Daily Insights
From Southeast Asia To Spain (GeoRisk Update)

The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling to outperform. Investors should stay defensive overall.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Jesse Anak Kuri
August Survey Results: Recession Delayed
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, US stocks, and China’s contribution to global growth. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of respondent (82%) expect…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing Downturn Slows
The Global Manufacturing PMI suggests that although the global manufacturing downturn remains intact, the pace of deterioration slowed in August. The headline PMI index ticked up by 0.4 points to 49. In particular, the Output, New Orders, and New Export…
Daily Insights
Remedying China’s Economic Malaise (Part 2)

In Part 2 of this series, we prescribe the treatment needed to produce a recovery for the ailing Chinese economy. Authorities will only panic and unleash “irrigation-style” stimulus if the unemployment rate rises sharply, or a financial crisis unravels in onshore markets. This is not yet the case.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Resilient US Consumption, Moderating Inflation
The US Personal Income and Outlays report shows consumption remained resilient in July. Although personal income growth decelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.2% m/m, spending accelerated from an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m to 0.8% m/m – above expectations of 0.7% m/m.…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics