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Economic Growth

Eurozone Corporate Loan Demand Falls By Most On Record
Results of the ECB’s bank lending survey (BLS) show the impact of the central bank’s aggressive tightening cycle on the region’s economy. Uncertainty about the economic outlook, borrower-specific dynamics, lower risk tolerance and higher cost of funding…
Daily Insights
Value Has Returned To Short-Maturity TIPS
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, inflation will fall during the next 12 months, but not by as much as markets expect. Investors should take advantage of this valuation opportunity by entering 2-year/10-year TIPS breakeven slope…
Daily Insights
China’s Stimulus: Necessary But Not Sufficient

Stay cautious on Chinese stocks. Equity investors should use any rebound in onshore stock prices to downgrade A-shares from overweight to neutral within global and EM equity portfolios. Remain underweight Chinese investable/offshore stocks. Onshore bond yields will drop to all-time lows. Continue receiving 10-year swap rates. The currency will continue depreciating versus the US dollar in the coming months.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Is The Weakness Spreading To Services?
Flash PMIs sent a mixed signal about manufacturing and service sector conditions across DM economies in July. The Euro Area release was particularly weak. An unexpected 0.7-point decline in the Manufacturing PMI and a 0.9 point drop in the Services PMI…
Daily Insights
No Irrigation-Style Stimulus From Beijing
China’s Politburo meeting delivered a disappointing signal about Beijing’s willingness to deliver meaningful stimulus. Although policymakers pledged support for domestic demand, consumer sentiment, and risk prevention, they underscored that the measures will…
Daily Insights
Weighing The Tradeoffs: Easing Financial Conditions Versus Falling Inflation

This week we preview the July FOMC meeting, provide an update on the Fed’s balance sheet and recommend a new TIPS trade.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Three Scenarios In Which The US Can Avoid A Recession

Although not our base case, there is a path for the US economy to avoid a recession over the next few years. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside in the near term but to the downside over a 12-month horizon.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Spain's Election: Neither Sanchism Nor Francoism

Spain is holding a general election this Sunday and the country is likely to veer to the right. Will this shift threaten European unity and herald a new period of tensions in the Eurozone?

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Yushu Ma, Mathieu Savary
The World Contains Surprises And Disappointments
Citigroup’s global economic surprise index has fallen sharply over the past few months and is now slightly negative – indicating that economic data have surprised to the downside. Yet beneath the surface, there is a dichotomy across major global economies.…
Daily Insights
Breaking Out?
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the failure of EM stocks, Asian currencies and commodities to stage a broad-based outperformance is consistent with their macro thesis that global trade/manufacturing – the main driver of EM –…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics