Significantly stronger-than-expected consumer spending growth led to an upward revision to US GDP growth in Q2. That said, gross domestic income (GDI) has been lagging behind GDP. It increased 1.3% q/q in Q2, at the same rate as…
The 2Y/10Y segment of the yield curve is flirting with un-inversion. Aggressive rate cut expectations have largely driven its steepening, with the 2-year Treasury yields falling nearly 100 bps over the past couple of months.…
The ISM manufacturing PMI improved in August, from 46.8 to 47.2, but remained below expectations of 47.5 and extended a five-month contraction streak. Production declined at a faster pace (45.9 to 44.8) and both new orders and…
Even after the Fed cuts rates, policy will remain restrictive for some time. Moreover, in history, stocks have tended to fall around the first rate cut. We remain cautious on the outlook for the economy and risk assets.
Our annual end-of-summer chartbook report traces the labor market deterioration that led us to downgrade equities at the beginning of August. It also highlights the soft-landing expectations that the credit and equity markets are…
Democrats will not win a full sweep and implement drastic new tax hikes. However, our quant model still favors them to win the White House and just upgraded their odds. While we expect equity volatility around the election, investors…
MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June.
According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely to occur over the coming 6-12 months. A recession favors US equities in common currency terms barring…
Chinese onshore and offshore bank stocks have outperformed their respective broad markets by 26% and 24% since October. Despite deteriorating return on assets, return on equity and net interest margins, investors have sought out…
Tokyo’s CPI is a timely leading indicator of nationwide price pressures. In August, the headline, core (ex-food) and the “core core” (ex-food and energy) measures all accelerated by larger-than-expected margins…