Economy
Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?
August nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142 thousand workers, from a downwardly revised 89 thousand and below expectations of 165 thousand. Payroll growth fell to a four-year-low of 116 thousand on a 3-month moving average basis. Notably, pro-cyclical…
The July Employment Situation report had already cemented the case for a September rate cut and Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments dispelled any remaining doubt about an imminent monetary easing cycle. All the labor market data released since then…
BCA’s Global Leading Economic Indicator, a GDP-weighted average of the standardized leading indicators of 23 DM and EM economies, has had a good track record of predicting year-on-year changes in the IMF global real GDP growth series. The Global LEI has…
The pro-cyclical Eurozone economy is highly exposed to a global downturn, which we expect will materialize by early 2025. The ECB is behind the curve and we thus expect it to ease more aggressively than markets expect next year. A dovish surprise in 2025…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, central banks will continue to be a key source of gold demand. Central bank purchases in the first half of this year exceeded first-half purchases in every year they’ve been tracked going…
This morning's employment report, particularly the downward revisions to prior months, strengthens our conviction that the US economy is headed for recession.
In this Special Report, we analyze the behavior of economic data leading up to US recessions and discuss some common patterns.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.
