Economy
Chinese onshore and offshore bank stocks have outperformed their respective broad markets by 26% and 24% since October. Despite deteriorating return on assets, return on equity and net interest margins, investors have sought out their high dividend yields and…
According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely to occur over the coming 6-12 months. A recession favors US equities in common currency terms barring substantially less global ex-US…
This Insight looks at potential dollar moves in the next six-to-twelve months.
US GDP was unexpectedly revised higher to 3.0% q/q annualized in Q2, from 2.8% previously estimated. A significant upward revision to consumer spending (2.9% from 2.3% against expectations of a downward revision) largely offset weaker growth in other…
China has notably diversified its export markets over the past two decades, reducing its dependence on the US and other DM economies and strengthening trade ties with EM nations. Since 2000, shipments to the US have halved (from 30% to 16% of total…
The Asian currency index (ADXY index) rose nearly 3% from its late-July lows. While CNY/USD accounted for a large share of these gains, an equal-weighted basket of non-CNY Asian currencies surged by an even larger margin (5%) indicating that Asian currencies’…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘demand-constrained’ state to a highly unusual ‘supply-constrained’ state. This inversion is still a ways from normalizing, with labor demand…
Last week, economists polled by Bloomberg revised their consensus 2024 US GDP forecasts upwards, from 2.3% to 2.5%. Government spending and private investment were both revised 0.3 ppts higher to 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively, while consumption growth forecasts…
The market is currently expecting the Fed to cut rates by 100 bps over the course of 2024 and by another 120 bps throughout the first eight months of 2025. However, our Global Investment strategists expect the extent of 2024 rate cuts to undershoot…