Preliminary estimates suggest that with the exception of the UK (see Country Focus), manufacturing activity remains lackluster in DM economies. Manufacturing declined at a slower pace in Japan and Australia but the contractions…

  According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the domestic economy does not really explain the recent weakness in the Norwegian krone. Some of this weakness can be attributed to structural and…

  According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) financial conditions have become considerably more supportive since the fall of 2023. More recently, the index ticked noticeably lower from 99.4 earlier in August…

  We’ve highlighted that continued deterioration in consumer fundamentals will tip the US economy into a recession. Slower compensation growth, tighter lending standards for consumer loans and dwindling excess savings will…

  The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down the number of workers on payrolls by 818 thousand over the twelve months period ending March 2024. This largest downward revision since 2009 thus implies that the labor market has…

  According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy and US Bond Strategy services, the drivers of the structural downtrend in real interest rates include: demographic trends (declining fertility rates, longer life…

  It didn't take long for markets to utterly shrug off the surprise rise in July's unemployment rate. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed higher than it was the day before the July Employment Situation report was released…

  Back in May, our Commodity and Energy strategists argued that OPEC, EIA, and IEA oil demand forecasts were likely too optimistic. Indeed, while all three major oil price forecasters projected a moderation in demand this year,…

  In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.75% to 3.5% in August. It had kept rates on hold in June, after having led many other major DM central banks in easing policy in May. The Riksbank also…

  Canadian headline CPI decelerated from 2.7% y/y to 2.5% in July, the slowest pace in over 3 years. Notably, core median and trimmed-mean CPI eased further than expected, to 2.4% and 2.7% y/y respectively, 0.1 ppt below…