Housing starts and permits both disappointed in July. New construction contracted 6.8% m/m, from a 1.1% expansion in June. Permits, which typically lead housing starts, declined 4.0% m/m in July from 3.9% growth in the previous…
What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?
"There's no supply chain in the world that's more critical to us than China." — Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, March 2024 According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy and Emerging Market…
China’s economic malaise extended through the month of July. The contraction in property investment worsened (-10.2% YTD y/y) and disappointed expectations of a slower pace of decline. Residential property sales remained…
US industrial production fell by a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in July, the largest monthly decline so far this year. Capacity utilization also decreased a full percentage point to 77.8% Although Hurricane Beryl distorted…
Preliminary estimates suggest that US retail sales surprised to the upside in July. They grew by 1.0% m/m from a 0.2% monthly contraction in June, exceeding expectations of a slower 0.4% pace of growth. Sales of vehicles and…
The current Fed easing cycle will likely be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. The basis is our expectation that the US economy is heading into a rough landing. The primary driver of EM currencies is not US interest rates…
Consistent with the risk-on environment that has dominated markets so far this year, high yield bonds have returned 4.9% YTD on a total return basis, outperforming both Treasuries (2.9%) and investment grade (3.1%).…