Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and whether or not it has been triggered. BCA’s analysis has highlighted that the overall direction of…
Regular readers are familiar with our expectation that the stabilization in global growth this year will be fleeting. The US has been the main source of demand in this cycle. We view the latest string of US employment data as…
The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?
In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.
The market backdrop changed a lot between the preparation and the publication of our equity downgrade report. We publish this companion Insight to help investors navigate the new environment.
Consumer credit growth disappointed in June. Total credit outstanding rose by USD 8.9 billion, in June, lower than May's USD 13.9 billion, and shy of expectations of USD 10 billion. Revolving credit (which includes credit…
German Industrial production and factory orders continued their slump in June. The usual powerhouse of the Euro Area economy has been trailing its peers throughout 2024. While both industrial production and factory orders…
Over the past few weeks, global equities have been hit by rising scepticism over the bullish AI narrative and increasing concerns over global growth. Stocks should stabilize in the near term, but the medium-term direction is to the…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, the reason that the bears have been wrong for the past 18 months is that consumers have defied the expectations of most learned economists. As our colleagues posited in…