Economy
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) disappointed in July, contracting 0.6% m/m from a 0.2% decline in June, below expectations of -0.4%. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) was flat. Year-on-year contractions in the LEI have…
The ZEW survey of Eurozone business expectations decreased by a whopping 25.8 points to 17.9 in August. Notably, expectations for Germany’s current situation disappointed, worsening from an already depressed -68.9 level to -77.3, and expectations of future…
EM equities have dramatically underperformed their US and Eurozone peers in USD terms over the past 15 years. The inability of EM and EM Asia companies to grow their EPS largely explains EM equities “lost decade” (and a half). Since 2010, US EPS have grown…
Markets have recouped some of the losses incurred in the aftermath of the July US Employment Situation report. Was the surprise rise in the unemployment rate a false alarm? Supply-side dynamics alone cannot explain the overall rise in the unemployment…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity and Energy Strategy service, soft oil demand growth raises the likelihood that OPEC+ will back down from its plan to begin unwinding some of its production cuts later this year. However, investors should not read this as…
The US fiscal outlook is more unappetizing than it was before the pandemic, but we are not convinced that a difficult day of reckoning awaits. A Treasury market crisis is conceivable, but it is far from inevitable.
Housing starts and permits both disappointed in July. New construction contracted 6.8% m/m, from a 1.1% expansion in June. Permits, which typically lead housing starts, declined 4.0% m/m in July from 3.9% growth in the previous month. Concurrently, the NAHB…
The US unemployment rate has clocked in below 4.5% for 33 consecutive months. However, this historically low rate camouflages nascent cracks in the US labor market. Ahead of recessions, firms usually reduce the pace of hiring before they start…
Preliminary estimates suggest that although consumers’ perceptions of current economic conditions unexpectedly deteriorated in August, they are becoming increasingly optimistic about the future. The University of Michigan current conditions gauge dropped…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. They rebounded sharply in July from a previous contraction, largely exceeding expectations. Notably,…