Economy
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of the greatest cyclical risks to investors. A key question for investors is whether tariffs are prioritized early in the administration or…
Oil markets will not be impacted by Venezuela in the near term, but by shocks from the Middle East. Maduro’s ability to stay in power in the short-term removes an avenue of oil supply relief. The same avenue is cut off if Trump is reelected. Geopolitical shocks in Venezuela could present tactical buying opportunities for Chile, Peru, and Colombia.
The preliminary release of Q2 2024 US GDP surprised to the upside on Thursday. The US economy grew 2.8% on an annualized basis, and 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. The two largest drivers of the acceleration were consumption (mostly in goods) and gross…
We have high conviction that continued labor market softening will tip the US economy into a recession by year-end or early next year. It will reverberate to the rest of the world given that the US has been the main driver of global demand in this cycle. …
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, it is time to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a 6-12 month horizon. Since February, our colleagues have been closely tracking three labor market indicators: the…
After this morning’s jobless claims number, we have now seen enough deterioration in our preferred labor market indicators to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark”.
This report provides our framework for interpreting the messages from last week’s Third Plenum, and the potential implications for the economy and investors.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate by 25bps for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. We highlighted in a recent Insight that the soft June inflation print and weakening labor market increased the odds of more aggressive BoC easing. …
Preliminary PMIs suggest that, with the exception of the Eurozone, growth was still resilient in DM economies in July. Composite PMIs expanded across the board, at a faster pace in the US and the UK, and from previously contractionary levels in Japan. …
We assign high odds that the US will tip into a recession by year-end or early 2025. Given it has been the largest driver of global demand in this cycle, a US recession will morph into a global downturn. The procyclical Eurozone economy is particularly…