The Euro Area economy broadly surprised to the upside in the first half of 2024. Cooling inflation lifted real wages and the global late cycle amelioration benefitted the pro-cyclical Euro Area economy, but these tailwinds are…
In this Insight, we look into the recent CPI release in Canada, and the possible implications for fixed-income market trades.
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the market is overestimating the odds of a soft landing. Our colleagues’ client polls have shown that 59% of respondents expect the US economy to achieve a…
Markets had already been sussing out that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates for the second time when it meets next week, and this morning’s soft CPI report all but confirmed it. The last remaining obstacle in the…
On Monday morning, both election betting markets and financial markets reacted to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump that occurred over the weekend. Predictably, the betting odds that Trump will win the presidency in…
China's real GDP growth decelerated to 4.7% y/y in Q2, down from 5.3% in Q1 and below the consensus forecast of 5.1%. Domestic demand weakened, with retail sales growth sliding to 2% y/y in June, down from 3.7% in the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the threat to European equities stems from growth, not French politics. After the dissolution of the French parliament on June 9th, investors sold…
GeoMacro’s monthly Beta Report will typically perform deep dives into the most pressing macro topics of the moment. For its debut, however, it turns the microscope on its own process, explaining the team’s framework…
The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?
The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.