German Factory orders disappointed on Thursday. The month-on-month contraction deepened to 1.6% in June from a contraction of 0.6% in May, revised down from the previously reported 0.2%, well below expectations of a modest 0.5%…
The latest release of the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicated further softening of the labor market in the Great White North. The economy experienced a net loss in total employment, shedding 1,400 jobs compared to market…
June nonfarm payrolls expanded by 206,000 workers, topping the 190,000 consensus expectation, but downward revisions of 111,000 jobs in April and May pulled the three-month moving average down to 177 thousand, its lowest level…
In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.
Our labor market indicators have softened meaningfully during the past month but aren’t yet signaling an imminent recession. That said, the Fed can no longer ignore the labor market with the unemployment rate above 4% and rising.
The new Labour government will have flexibility to respond to macro shocks, which is positive for the UK in general, namely GBP-EUR, and also gilts in absolute terms. But over the long run, tax hikes will likely surprise to the…
Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.
The US unemployment rate stands at just 4.0% today following 27 consecutive sub-4% readings. Does this low unemployment rate guarantee a soft landing in the US economy? Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team’s base…
The stabilization in global growth continued in June. The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.9, nearly in line with May’s 22-month high. However, international trade flows deteriorated notably. The new export…