The ISM manufacturing PMI ticked lower in June, from 48.7 to 48.5, thus disappointing expectations of a slower pace of manufacturing sector contraction. The seemingly small decline hides more uninspiring dynamics. Most notably…
Chinese manufacturing PMIs remained mostly stable in June. The Caixin PMI ticked 0.1 point higher to 51.8 while the NBS measure remained at 49.5. Both leading gauges of Chinese manufacturing activity are thus sending seemingly…
The number of job openings in the US surprised to the upside in May, growing from a downwardly revised 7.9 million to 8.1 million. Not only did the growth in job openings beat expectations of a decline, but the May number even…
Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.
The University of Michigan survey of consumers was released on Friday. The sentiment measure increased from 65.6 to 68.2, beating consensus estimates of 66. Current conditions as well as expectations also increased, going from 62…
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team recommended upgrading South African assets. The team argued that the new national unity government has an opportunity to ease the restrictive policies and…
The US personal income and outlays report was released on Friday. Personal income grew by 0.5% versus 0.3% the previous month, beating consensus estimates. Real personal spending growth also increased, coming in at 0.3%…
The bond market should sell off and drag stocks down on higher odds of a single-party sweep, policy uncertainty, unorthodox Trump presidency, aggressive tariffs, large tax cuts, large budget deficits, labor shortages, a fired Fed…
