In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent China’s exponential credit growth, China’s trend growth rate will fall to 4 percent and the world’s trend growth rate will fall to sub-3 percent.…
Right after the pandemic, many US homeowners locked in mortgages at extremely low rates. When interest rates rose, these homeowners refused to sell, as moving to a new home would result in an interest rate reset. In turn this…
Mexico has gone from investor darling to massive underperformer within the EM space in the past month. In the eyes of our Emerging Markets Strategy team, the near-term outlook for Mexican risk assets remains poor in absolute…
Several pieces of data were released for the US on Thursday. US durable goods orders growth slowed from 0.2% to 0.1% in May, beating expectations of a 0.5% contraction. However other components of the report disappointed…
The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today.…
Our Global Investment Strategy team often highlights the job openings-to-unemployed ratio as a gauge of the labor market’s slack. This indicator climbed to over 2 job openings per unemployed person in 2022, as labor…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the BJP's loss of majority in India’s parliament could be a blessing in disguise for India. The new BJP-led coalition with the National Democratic…
Australia’s inflation for May was released on Tuesday. Annual headline CPI increased from 3.6% in April to 4%, outpacing expectations of 3.8%. Trimmed-mean inflation also increased from 4.1% to 4.4%. Individual…
The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural…