The Q2 earnings season delivered solid earnings and sales growth and resilient margins, reassuring investors that corporate America remains in good health and is capable of navigating economic uncertainty while mitigating the impact…
The BTP-Bund spread has tightened to pre-2010s levels, but with global growth risks we favor Gilts over Bunds and prefer BTPs over credit. While the EURO STOXX 50 remains rangebound since the Liberation Day recovery, European…
Canada’s July jobs report was mixed, but persistent slack and trade headwinds support our overweight in Canadian bonds and preference for 5s10s steepeners. Employment fell by 40.8k, driven by a 51k drop in full-time jobs, yet…
Banxico’s latest rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican domestic bonds. Mexico’s central bank eased policy by another 25 basis points to 7.75%. Investors should bet on further easing. Inflation will continue…
Our Bank Credit Analyst strategists argue that a US fiscal crisis should be treated as a base case over the next decade, not a tail risk. The ballooning US budget deficit reflects higher interest rates, demographic pressures, and the…
The July PMIs and inflation data confirm that China faces a persistent low-growth, deflationary backdrop, with weak demand and tariff risk warranting defensive equity positioning. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while…
Germany’s June factory orders missed expectations, highlighting persistent headwinds reinforcing the case for a cautious tactical outlook on European assets. Orders fell 1.0% m/m, slowing to 0.8% y/y on a calendar-adjusted basis…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2025.
The July ISM Services report showed a stagflationary impulse, but soft labor momentum reinforces the view that price pressures remain contained. The headline index fell to 50.1 from 50.8, missing expectations. New orders softened to…
While the early resignation of Fed Gov. Kugler opened the door for a politically aligned nominee, yields will ultimately be determined by the economic outlook. Her departure triggered a further intraday DXY drop, as markets reacted…